ENCOUNTERS - 292

A weekly Column by Rajan Khanna

Pakistan is in turmoil and this time, for a change, the direct confrontation is not between the army and the civilian government, but, it is between the legislature and the judiciary of the said country. However, army is reported to be the main instigator behind the extra-ordinary judicial activism coming to the fore in Pakistan. Prime Minister Mr. Yusuf Raza Gilani had been summoned by the supreme court of that country to depose in regards to the corruption cases against Mr. Asif Ali Zardari, the President of the said country.

The stand of the incumbent dispensation of the Pakistan is: Mr. Zardari, as the President of the country is beneficiary of the immunity under the provisions of N R O (National Reconciliation Ordinance) hence can’t be tried for any of the corruption cases which have been registered against him. The said NRO was promulgated by none other than Gen. Parvez Musharraf, while he was at the helm of affairs, mainly to facilitate the entry of Ms. Benazir Bhutto back into Pakistan. New players are emerging in the political scenario of Pakistan and new alliances are also on cards which will determine political course the country is going to follow in the near future.

The reality is: no political dispensation can survive in Pakistan without the covert as well as the overt support of the army; the said institution, unlike in other democracies, is not subservient to the elected governments and ratifies all the major decisions taken by the latter. Recent standoff between the army and the civilian rulers was triggered off in the aftermath of the surreptitious attack of the American seals on Osama Bin Laden; army has perceived the said attack as an infringement of its sovereignty and has been accusing the civilian regime of towing the American line of war on terror.

As the trends are portending, Pakistan is going to withdraw from the gamut of nations engaged by the U.S.A to unleash war on the terror; there are going to be several repercussions of the move. There is lot of unrest in Pakistan about the killings of its civilians in the drone attacks by the Americans and in this respect, the last straw on the camel’s back came in the form of attack on the Osama hideout – which was done without the knowledge of the Pakistani government – and is considered as a betrayal by the Pakistani masses. Besides, killing of twenty four Pakistani soldiers in the NATO attack on the Afghan border, has sent shock waves among the people of that country who now want the government to withdraw the facilities which have been extended to the U.S.A by their country.

Mr. Imran Khan, ex-cricketer, who had been trying his luck in the political arena of Pakistan for the last fourteen years, albeit without electoral success, has become cynosure of the eyes of the Pakistani people, especially the younger lot. He had always been against the presence of the Americans in his country and had been vehemently opposing the killing of the people in the tribal areas in the name of war on terror. A new kind of bonhomie has been developing between him and the army top brass. Holistically speaking, one can expect the exit of the American troops from the Pakistani land in the near future, and consequentially, there is going to be sharp turn in the foreign policy of that country; for the past sixty four years of its existence, Pakistani foreign policy has been American oriented, but now onwards, it is definitely going to be China centered.

The thinkers in Pakistan must have weighed the pros and cons of leaving the American camp and reinforcing its ties more vigorously with the Chinese. Till now, the Pakistani economy has been surviving more or less on the largesse provided by the Americans; with the streams of the aid drying down, the biggest question in front of the fiscal planners of that country is: how to keep the state of economy in healthy shape and service the burgeoning amount of foreign debts? China can provide arms and armaments to its army and is in position to give reasonable sustenance to its foreign policy but can’t be expected to give the financial aids which were given by the Americans in particular and other western powers in general.

India will have to keep a close eye on the developments in that country; although, so long as the Pakistani army’s will remains paramount in respect of bilateral relations, the changes in the civilian regimes hardly affect the status quo prevailing between the two nations, yet, more pronounced drift of Pakistani policy makers toward China, create many security concerns for us.